It’s now day six of my hike on the Arizona Trail, going
northbound from the Mexican border along an 800-mile trail. I’ve made great
time. Today I’ll pass the 100-mile point a little ahead of schedule.
My right knee, however, is presenting some challenges. Pain
shoots through my leg with every step. It’s been building for the past couple
days and now it’s beyond the normal ache a person experiences with this kind of
activity. I’ve been doing 15-23 miles per day up to this point through the
rugged southwest desert. Ibuprofen helps hide the pain, but I fear this may be
an injury that demands more than just medication.
The planning for this hike started several months ago. I
have spreadsheets with details about meals, gear, elevation gain, and mileage
for each day. There are buffers and contingencies in the plan for weather occurrences
and potential injury incidence. The critical path is the actual path through
the wilderness, combined with resupply points for food and other perishables. I
had only 10 days to give to the trail, which would put me at the 165-mile point,
averaging 17 miles per day. Since I’m a project manager for a living, putting
together a successful plan for this kind of activity is a natural fit for me.
The contingency plans for injuries identified bail-out
points for any non-debilitating injury. This would provide a safe means for
getting help if needed. For any injury that left me unable to walk I would use
my emergency device to call in search and rescue. The seriousness of the injury
will dictate the impact on the schedule and scope of the hike and would be
managed on a case-by-case basis.
At the start of day 6 my position on the trail put me at 16 miles
to the next potential bail-out point. There were several other options further
up the trail, but none of them presented the same opportunity. This next bail-out
point had immediate access to a busy state road, where I could quickly get help
or a ride if needed. Whereas, options further up the trail were less trafficked
forest service roads, which may delay help for hours or even days.
What are my next steps? How can we handle risk management in
this situation?
First, identify the seriousness of the situation.
This hike has a timeline constraint with a defined
trail-length goal. Best case is that the pain in my knee would just slow me down
but allow me to finish on time. However, my condition was not trending toward improvement.
Worst case is that I am developing a serious injury that may increase the need and
urgency for medical help if I continued past this next bail-out point.
Second, perform a risk assessment and identify risk
reduction options. (populate the risk register)
The risk to a serious knee injury increases with distance
and physical stress on the knee. Completing the entire 165 miles is the desired
goal, but not necessary. If I continue past the next bail-out point, the probability
of the knee worsening is high, and the impact of a worsened condition is high. I’m
also operating in a cloud of uncertainty; the certainty of the knee’s medical/physical
condition is unknowable without an assessment from a medical professional. The
options are 1) to bail out at the next opportunity to get a physician’s
diagnosis and potentially prevent a debilitating injury, 2) move on to the next
bail out and reassess again at each bailout opportunity, 3) make camp and rest
a day before deciding.
Third, decide on a plan of action.
No doubt, continuing to hike without seeking a physician’s
opinion presents a high risk both to the body and to the hiking (project) objective.
The hiking objective of 165 miles is not a hard requirement. Less distance,
although not the most desired, does not mean a failed objective (we’ll call it ‘limited
success’). The path of least risk seems to be option 1. Bail out at the next
opportunity to either get a physician’s diagnosis and/or to stop the hike and take
whatever time is required for recovery. Option 2 is one to delay a decision
with very possibly increasing risk. Option 3 defies the current trend; the knee
is worsening; it doesn’t seem that one day of rest would allow me to finish in
less pain or at all. Expert judgement is a valuable technique in this case.
Let’s also run through a more complete risk management
overview.
Plan for Risk Management
We have a plan that was informed through our understanding
of the environmental factors (weather, trail conditions, physical demands, etc.),
data from analytical techniques, and injected expert judgement.
Perform Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis
Our risk management plan included contingent bail out
points, associated costs, schedule impacts, data gathering, modeling our change
options, scope assessment, probability and impact matrix, and an urgency assessment.
Plan for Risk Responses
We’ve developed strategies for each change option to lessen
the impact of the risk and measured these strategies against the plan.
Control Risk
We’ve considered performance data, measured and projected
outcomes based on an audit of different change options, and injected all these
inputs early in the process as to allow time for adequate assessments and
decision making.
What was final the outcome?
I decided to bail out at the next opportunity and end my
hike. This choice curtailed serious injury, avoided a costly medical situation,
and satisfied two thirds of the project objective. I will have another opportunity next
year to continue this hike.
